The Warren Buffett of Sports Betting
Dr. Bob Brings a Historic Track Record of Long-Term Sports Betting Success
Speculate Today has been following Dr. Bobs Sports Picks for over 12+ years. Dr. Bob has an impressive track record that expands over 30+ years picking winning sports wagers. Over the last 23 seasons his combined picks have generated an annualized rate of return of 17%, which is more than double the S&P 500 annualized return of 8% during the period. His performance translates into a massive return of 37x ROI (Return on Capital) for his subscribers. Taking an initial $10,000 investment to over $370,000 during the past 23 years. With a track record like that, in our opinion, Dr. Bob should be considered The Warren Buffett of Sports Betting.
Dr. Bob really stands out in our opinion compared to others in the sporting betting industry, due to:
- Transparency provided by Dr. Bob on his past performance
- Continuous improvements to his forecasting model over time
- Advice on sports betting as an investment to his readers
- Money management guidance to his readers
- Ability over time to force Vegas Market Makers to adjust their lines
Speculate Today reached out to Dr. Bob to provide a consolidated history of past performance to be able to compare directly to the S&P 500 index returns for the same period. Dr. Bob also provides individual sport records of wins and losses on his website. He acknowledges with any investment there are risks associated with the potential projected returns over time. His major at Cal was in statistics with an emphasis in economics that is where he realized that betting on sports was very similar to playing the stock market.
Dr. Bob continues to provide free and paid services to his readers for the following sports:
- College Football
- College Basketball
With all the above sports covered, Dr. Bob gives his audience betting options almost every week of the year. You can check out his website at: https://drbobsports.com/
View on Point Spread and Sports Betting – From Dr. Bob
“The point spread is simply a price that a trader (i.e. a gambler) is willing to pay to bet on each team. It became apparent that the price a gambler would pay to bet on a team was heavily dependent upon how well that team was playing of late and I hypothesized that there was probably an overreaction to recent events in sports betting just as there was with stock prices on Wall Street.
Most people think that sports betting is about finding ‘sure things,’ but in reality, such ‘locks’ are nothing more than gamblers’ fancy. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, ‘sure things’ simply do not exist. As a professional sports bettor, my goal is to find and exploit many small edges over a long period of time to earn a compounding return. Winning 55% of games is very significant, and with very conservative bet sizing, you can grow your return very quickly. Investing $10,000 into the stock market for a year and earning a 10% return is considered a great investment – but your return winning a modest 54% of your sports bets would trounce that return.
My picks have yielded a much higher risk adjusted return than the stock market. Obviously, the variance from season to season is formidable, but as anyone who had a significant amount invested in stocks or real estate in 2008 can tell you, such swings aren’t limited to sports. In the long run, my edge in what I do is far greater than the edge that you could hope to gain in any other speculative market.”
History of Dr. Bob – Owner of Dr. Bob Sports
“My first brush with sports betting was in my sophomore year at UC Berkeley in 1984 when a friend invited me to join an NFL pool with a $2 entry fee. I had always been interested in sports statistics growing up and had often predicted games for fun to see how closely I could get to predicting the score of the Oakland Raiders games each week.
I had no idea what a point spread was when I took the pool sheet home to study, but I was intrigued by the problem at hand and spent hours that night coming up with a formula that used each team’s season-to-date statistics to predict the likely scoring margin of each game. I turned in my picks and went 12-2 against the spread, good enough for the $102 first place prize. I went 11-3 the very next week to finish 2nd and pocketed an additional $40. Needless to say, my interest in sports betting was certainly enhanced by the cash filling my usually empty front pocket.
I spent the rest of that football season researching and reading anything I could find on the subject of sports handicapping. Most of what I found was useless, but my thesis on how to properly look at the problem of picking winners against the spread began to take shape as I questioned other approaches.
I also started to notice that most teams were inconsistent in their level of play from week to week and that harnessing these up and down patterns would be very helpful in my new endeavor. As luck would have it, I was taking a time series class that focused on Fourier analysis, which explores cyclical patterns of data. Fourier analysis is sort of like linear regression but with sine and cosine waves and helps to uncover the frequencies at which a team’s performance oscillates.
I later found out that I was among the first to use technical analysis in sports betting. Understanding the patterns of team performance, in conjunction with the betting patterns of gamblers, was a powerful tool. My results in the mid-80’s using my more advanced methods resulted in winning 63% on the games I personally bet while paying my way through college.
I started Dr. Bob Sports in 1987 and quickly found that being honest about my 60% win rates in an industry full of false claims of 70% to 80% winners wasn’t getting me very far. I was fortunate to be asked by the Gold Sheet to write an article for one of their publications and that article led to a weekly column in the Las Vegas Sports News called “The Doctor Is In”, which garnered plenty of positive attention among sharp sports bettors in Vegas. I also was asked to be a regular guest on a two hour weekly sports betting radio show that was broadcast nationally on the Sports Fan Radio Network (a precursor to ESPN radio and Fox Sports radio).
The attention I received from the weekly column and radio appearances encouraged me to start a print publication called ‘Dr. Bob Sports News’ that was distributed around the country to newsstands. Dr. Bob Sports News was packed with analyses of upcoming games and useful charts and became a favorite among more intelligent sports gamblers who appreciated my unique approach. Getting my highly analytical articles and game write ups to the public enabled me to positively differentiate my service from all the scam services making false claims, and the publication earned me a loyal following that jump started my business. My publication ran successfully for 11 years until I launched my drbobsports.com web site in the late 90’s. My goal with drbobsports.com was to have even more detailed analysis of every game available on my site, with most of it being free of charge.”
Sports Betting Provides Continuous Investment Opportunities
When evaluating alternative investments opportunities, Speculate Today cannot ignore examples that present continuous opportunities for investment, provide opportunities that create an inefficient market and where some players might have better information than key market makers. The more shots on goal you can take the more opportunities you have to achieving above average returns.
Sports betting is recession proof compared to other forms of investments. The sports calendar is continuous and unobstructed to the rest of the economy. A variety of speculative investing options in terms of different games, sports, and wager possibilities exist throughout the year. Your selections are not limited based on current market conditions, social phenomena, regulations, or economic instability.
Dr. Bob’s view: “An investor can reduce risk of their overall portfolio by holding investments which are not positively correlated with other investments. As the economic crash in 2008 demonstrated, even an investor who has dutifully diversified themselves between different kinds of stocks and real estate found themselves completely exposed when the market tanked in almost all areas. The advantage of sports betting is that it is completely removed from any other market. It’s the very definition of zero correlation, and is a fantastic way to diversify any portfolio.
Factoring sports betting into portfolio optimization is a fairly complex task because one must factor in other opportunities and then adjust for risk tolerance. However, given that both the annual return and risk adjusted return (Sharpe Ratio) of my investments are well above those of the S&P 500, it’s safe to say that my picks would be a valuable investment for you. I would recommend allocating between 5% and 15% of your annual investing budget to sports betting.”
Sports betting is even Shark Tank approved. In 2004, Mark Cuban himself contemplated starting up a sports betting hedge fund. Mark Cuban stated “Sports betting offers better investment opportunities than trading stocks”. https://blogmaverick.com/2004/11/27/my-new-hedge-fund/
Long-Term Track Record Is Impressive Compared To S&P 500 Returns
Breaking down his success over the last 23 professional sports seasons shows an impressive overall return of 37x ROI your initial investment starting in the 1998-99 season up to the 2020-21 season. The 37x ROI provides an annualized rate of return of 17% for the 23 year period. Turning an initial $10,000 investment into over $370,000.
To compare Dr. Bob’s yearly returns to the S&P 500, we have illustrated what an initial $10,000 investment would have returned for the S&P 500 over the same respective period. The S&P returned a 5.9x ROI providing an annualized rate of return of 8% during the 23 year period. The S&P 500 returns included the reinvestment of the dividends received per year. If you were to run the annualized returns without reinvestment of dividends the return would have dropped to 6% IRR during the period.
The returns are calculated with consideration for the Vig, or vigorish, which is the cut or amount charged by a sportsbook for taking a bet, also known as the juice in slang terms. The sportsbook only collects the vig if the bettor loses the wager. For example a point spread is often listed with -110 odds.
For comparison purposes tax and handicapping service costs have been ignored for the analysis. But one item to consider with the upcoming potential increase in capital gains tax, this could propel sports betting into an even superior speculative investment alternative going forward.
Short-Term Track Record Is Crushing S&P 500 Returns
Dr. Bob has been on a hot streak over the last 5 years with average yearly returns of 51.4% compared to the S&P 500 yearly average return of 15.7%. Even with the S&P 500 delivering returns above the long-term average of only ~10%, Dr. Bob’s returns have still trounced the returns over the recent period.
Even more impressive than the 5 year. Dr. Bob has been crushing it over the last 3 years with average yearly returns of 62.8% compared to the S&P 500 average yearly return of 14.9%. Dr. Bob has been on an impressive winning steak as of late.
Yearly Return Comparisons for Dr. Bob vs S&P 500
To compare Dr. Bob’s yearly fluctuations to the S&P 500, we graphed the chart below to show the respective yearly rate of return (IRR%) returned by both. As you will see from the chart the volatility fluctuations on a yearly basis are higher for Dr. Bob compared to the S&P 500.
When you are comparing two alternative investment options you must come up with a ratio that will help compare the respective returns. In this case that would be The Sharpe Ratio.
For the specific period referenced above of 23 years Dr. Bob delivered a Sharpe Ratio better than the S&P 500 during the respective period. Dr. Bob returns delivered a .48 Sharpe Ratio compared to the S&P Sharpe Ratio of .37 which equates to an 29.6% advantage.
Assumptions for the 23 year Sharpe Ratio are shown below. The Risk Free Rate was the yearly average for 1 Year Treasury Bills and 20 Year Treasury Bills during the respective time period.
High Level Detail on the Sharpe Ratio – From Dr. Bob
“Portfolio Theory describes an ‘optimal curve’ of expected return vs. risk, which encompasses all efficient portfolios. The easiest way to define ‘risk’ is to use the standard deviation of past returns, which tells us how volatile a particular investment has been over its lifespan. Given the choice between two investments of equal expected return, an investor would obviously opt for the less risky choice, and would consider a more volatile option only if there were greater expected returns associated with it.
A simple way to measure risk adjusted return is by using the Sharpe Ratio, which describes the ratio of the difference between the expected return (R) and minus the risk free return (Rf) to the standard deviation (o) of the investment:
The risk free rate varies from year, but consider an example where it is about 3.5%. The long-term return of the S&P 500 is about 10%, with a standard deviation of 16%. This gives the S&P 500 a Sharpe Ratio of (10%-3.5% / 16%) of 0.406.
If a handicapper plays 700 games a year (about 2 per day) at a modest 54.0% expected win rate (at -110 odds), his expected return would be 36.8% of bankroll with flat betting of 1.7% of his initial bankroll per bet for the entire year (1.7% is determined using ½ Kelly at 54% expected win rate), and the expected profit would be even higher if the bankroll were adjusted each week (i.e. Kelly betting). The standard deviation of 700 bets risking 1.7% of initial bankroll per bet with a 54% expected win rate is 20.4%. Thus, a true 54% handicapper playing 700 games a year while wagering 1.7% of his initial bankroll at -110 odds has a Sharpe Ratio of (36.78%-3.5%) / 20.38%, which is 1.633. Thus, not only does investing in a long term 54% handicapper have an expected return nearly four times higher than the S&P 500, it also has a much more attractive Sharpe Ratio.”
Snapshot of a Prior Recommendation Provided by Dr. Bob to a Paid Subscriber
Check out the full recommendation analysis by clicking the link below:
Closing Thoughts on using Dr. Bob Sports Picks as an Alternative Investment Option
Speculate Today believes sports betting should be considered as an option in your speculative alternative investment portfolio. When considering advise around sports betting, we would guide our readers to be careful on whose advice you take on sports wagers.
Dr. Bob has a proven track record of delivering valuable advice and success to stay in the game for 30+ years. When you consider what Malcolm Gladwell included in his book Outliers. Mr. Gladwell repeatedly mentions the “10,000-Hour Rule”, “claiming that the key to achieving word-class expertise in any skill, is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing the correct way for a total of around 10,000 hours.” Based on Dr. Bob’s track record of longevity and documented success, he meets the required 10,000 hours to be a subject matter expert in our view.
As you invest in sports betting one helpful personal experience from Speculate Today. When I was in High School, I started making my first sports bets. My first weekend of Football sports bets was full of beginners’ luck, where I picked 3 separate parlays of 3 teams. The payoff was 5x for each of my respective wagers. As you can imagine for a young man going 9-0 on his picks during his first weekend of sports betting my confidence level was through the roof. Then over the next couple of weeks I was able to just break even. One weekend I ended up betting all my accumulated profits and went 0-9 on my picks. This was very disappointing and took several years before I placed another wager. If I would have only read about Dr. Bob’s approach to money management. His guidance would have prevented me from eliminating my profits on one weekend of speculating on football games.
Do not miss out on the opportunity, to invest in sports betting, with The Warren Buffett of Sports Betting Dr. Bob, helping guide you through the process. His approach, and expertise, will help guide you on your path, to profiting from a long-term approach on sports betting as an investment. Check out Dr. Bob’s site for additional helpful information around sports betting.
Helpful Links for Dr. Bob Sports Picks
Dr. Bob Website:
About Dr. Bob:
Sports betting as an investment:
Money management for sports betting: